Новости


 
Есть ли у “зеленого” мегаватт-часа шанс стать валютой Артура Кларка? = Does green megawatt-hour stand a chance to become Arthur Clarke’s currency?

Известный британский футурист Артур Кларк, прогнозы которого по большей части выполняются, предсказал [перевод]: “2016. Все существующие валюты упраздняются. На вооружение принимается универсальная валюта из расчета “мегаватт-часа”.

Один "зеленый" сертификат возобновляемой энергии как раз представляет один мегаватт-час, точнее, "зеленые" свойства мегаватт-часа.

Могут ли "зеленые" сертификаты возобновляемой энергии стать новой валютой? Или, по крайней мере, система таких сертификатов -- системой трекинга для новой валюты?

Вниманию предлагается краткая статья Зерчаниновой И.Л. (более ранние публикации: международный экспертный бюллетень Пульс энергетики, журнал Бизнес в энергетике, бюллетень Технократия: новости и тренды, др.), в которой предпринимается попытка осмыслить возможность выполнения указанного прогноза. В связи с этим рассматривается потенциал взаимодействия между “зеленой” энергией и “зелеными” сертификатами (физической возобновляемой энергией и "зелеными" свойствами возобновляемой энергии). С помощью "зеленой" сертификации торгуют "зелеными" свойствами энергии отдельно от собственно энергии. Но некоторые свойства любого объекта, в т.ч. “зеленые” свойства такого объекта как энергия, с позиций системного подхода ”захватывают” хотя бы в минимальной степени другие свойства объекта. Нет ли рационального зерна и перспективы в том, чтобы выражать цену сертификата в процентах от цены физической энергии? Не выгодно ли топливной и атомной энергетике “подключиться” к “зеленой”? И ряд других соображений. Полный текст читать здесь.

Сейчас данная статья опубликована в бюллетене Интеллектуальная энергетика

Некоторая общая дополнительная информация (на русском языке).

1.Переход от золотого к энергетическому стандарту обеспеченности валют – необходимое условие преодоления внутрисистемного кризиса мировой КФС. 2.Лектро: новая валюта, основанная на электричестве. 3.Киловатт-час – мировая валюта будущего? 4.Энергорубль: будущая стабильная валюта, или пустота обещаний? 5.Мерило энергии // Энерговектор, 2014, № 10, с. 3 – по ссылке http://www.energovector.com/files/ev10-2014.pdf; 6.О российской системе "зеленой" сертификации.


Комментарий автора в связи с приближающимся 2018 годом.


Скоро 2018 год. Неужели Артур Кларк совершенно ошибся? Не похоже. Формируется криптовалюта, в числе прочего находящая применение в стимулировании чистой энергетики; см., например, статьи Как блокчейн и криптовалюты меняют рынок солнечной энергетики и Без центра.  

Примечательно, что в рамках некоторых подходов владельцы энергетических токенов получают также зеленые сертификаты; см., например, об умных контрактах

Биткоин - децентрализованная валюта, что не всегда может быть удобным. Вместе с тем, зеленые сертификаты могли бы стать дополнительной и менее централизованной валютой. Почему бы некоторой авторитетной международной эко-организации все-таки не запустить проект? 

Earlier publications were: the full text here (EnergyPulse), as well as partly here (EnergyBiz) and here (Technocracy: news and trends). Now it is published in the Intelligent Utility bulletin, the text is also given below. Post your comments! And see my comment towards the end of 2017 (below too).

Does green megawatt-hour stand a chance to become Arthur Clarke's currency?

Irina L. Zerchaninova (2015)

Famous British author, inventor and futurist Sir Arthur C. Clarke predicted for 2016 the replacement of money by a megawatt-hour universe currency. He was not the first who thought in a similar way. These were Henry Ford (energy-backed money) and Thomas Edison (monetary policy and "energy dollar"). Modern researchers, particularly, in US and Russia also say about "energy currency" and "energy standard". Some of them even come up with ideas of concrete options, which, perhaps, still do not become a frequent discussion practice. In the meantime the year of 2016 is getting nearer and nearer. What's about the Arthur Clarke's prediction for all that?

It is often believed that "energy currency" may be materialized, while replacing money is still a fantasy. But the situation just seems a little bit backwards. Conventional money is close to be abolished - plastic cards and electronic records do prevail. The latter can be generally bundled to anything, though if to mean the global financial system, banks, credit structures, you should notice they do not change principally, and, within this framework, money does not abolish. Energy currency and energy standard, however, look like quite difficult matters at all. "Any" megawatt-hour (or kilowatt-hour) as a currency is striving to bring back the Gold Standard, "simply" electronic energy certificates reject the existing financial and so on systems (with all the consequences), and "eco-dollar" is regarded as untenable in the near future because of insufficiency of green energy capacity. Actually, diversity of opinions and approaches is much wider - for example, check references [1-6].

But in one way or another, they all lead to rather cumbersome schemes.

Nevertheless, freely tradable renewable energy certificates or green certificates (RECs), which are often called "green currency" beyond the renewable power sector, seem a pathway. It is hardly imaginable that predictions for the future may refer to conventional fossil fuels. And it is unlikely that Arthur Clarke would do away with the sustainable development processes if he were among us today.
It could be very interesting if a reputable institution experimentally took RECs as a means of payment, or introduced a means of payment bundled to green megawatt-hours (kilowatt-hours) with tracking system like the European Guarantees of Origin (GoOs). However, such an experiment ought to be based not only on an opportunity to confirm the Arthur Clarke's prediction but also on some additional factors. Below are my remarks in this connection.

The trade with green attributes of renewable energy separately from physical energy is convenient for definite markets but not very correct in the context of systemic approach. Any attribute of a subject captures all other attributes of this subject to a degree. Hence, the price of RECs ought to reflect at least minimal physical energy price or, if to consider a long-term process, its average one. And, it wouldn't be inconvenient for RECs systems, if RECs, fulfilling their conventional functions, had prices expressed as a percentage of the green energy price. Instead, it would facilitate simplifying the creation of a world currency system. Any function can be defined as an external manifestation of attributes in the structure of relations. Dependently from the latter, the same in fact certificate in view of economic aspects can be looked upon as a commodity, security, non-tradable confirmation. Why not world currency or something related to it? But not only that, let such an investigation facilitate more flexibility of RECs as a specific instrument.

Energy end-use is not restricted really by energy consumption at the moment of energy supply payment. It may be specified next. And creating some recommendations may lead to more transparency in both energy transfers and payments.

The science in fossil fuel sector and nuclear power one is able to create unexpected lines for renewable energy technologies of the next generation. The deployment of RECs would stimulate them to it. Insufficiency of green capacities may be overcome through RECs borrowing schemes. Besides, green energy investors could be exempted from ecology-related taxes if they invest not less than a definite sum, which is not a bad idea in all.

And, the most feasible way to implement the prediction and to progress on the sustainable development is within making some international money transfers depend on the fact of existence ... of what? For example, it might be the existence of renewable energy targets and RECs systems (or/and high-efficiency energy technologies) in a country, which of course is a good subject for a discussion.

Ref.:
[1] Currency systems based on energy consumed. 2012 http://www.roperld.com/science/CurrencySystems.htm 

[2] Electricity as currency? 10 reasons it could work. 2013 http://www.activistpost.com/2013/03/electricity-as-currency-10-reasons-it.html

[3] Hybrid energy market and currency system for total energy management: Invention (US 20130332327 A1). 2014 http://www.google.com/patents/US20130332327

[4] Should currency be denominated in kilowatt hours? / Institute of Economic Affairs. 2014 http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/should-currency-be-denominated-in-kilowatt-hours

[5] Solar coin ? The first energy currency: Forum. 2014 - 2015. http://solarcoin.org/forum/

[6] The relation between energy and currency. 2015 http://energyfanatics.com/2015/05/04/relation-between-energy-currency/

The author's comment (end 2017).

Soon is the year 2018. Was Arthur Clarke fully wrong? Does not look like. A crypto currency is being created which, among other things, finds application in promoting clean energy - see, for example, Leveraging Bitcoin & Blockchain For 'Solar Power' Sun Exchange article.

It is noteworthy that in certain approaches owners of energy tokens also receive green certificates - see, for example, about smart contracts.

Bitcoins are dezentralized currency, which may not always be convenient. At the same time, green certificates could become an additional and a less centralized currency. Why would some authoritative international eco-organization still not launch the project?